It occurred to me recently to keep a journal of my observations, thoughts, and opinions these days, as this time may be one which stands out in history books to come. If that is indeed the case, this will serve as a ship’s log — a catalogue of the times for me and mine to look back on from a rosier/more stable future time, or in the event that the gale takes us under, may it be treasured by whomever finds it ashore.
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The past half year has had a surreal feeling to it. In December, the president of the United States got impeached, and you hardly noticed. Perhaps because we publicly assassinated a foreign leader on an ally’s soil the next week, or perhaps because the steady drumbeat of environmental calamity, political rot, and diplomatic brinksmanship had already deafened us all. Nonetheless, in January you started to catch whiffs of alarm if you sniffed around the right corners. China was battling with a new disease, and had completely shut down certain localities. While a discerning mind could tell by late January that such a halt in commerce from the second largest economy in the world was sure to make a splash, the general mood was that this was another SARS, another Ebola… it’s something they deal with OVER THERE, but there’s no way it could ever really matter to daily life over here.
Then February came: South Korea, the Princess Cruise, and… hmm… Italy? That’s weird, the West isn’t generally affected by these things. Perhaps a case or two on the west coast of the United States. Not enough to stop you from visiting friends in LA.
February — Oh yeah also Bernie Sanders.
By this time, it is crystal clear to anyone looking at the numbers in China, the rate of contagion, and the necessity of closing off borders that this must have a significant impact on the global economy, yet the stock market is still at an all time…
Stock market goes belly up. Dead fish. Fed pumps trillions and trillions of repo/qe/black magic, trying to defibrillate a mound of corned beef (happy St. Patty’s day!). Bonds jump out of a multiyear channel and scream higher for a few days, but all the liquidity runs out. Seems like the Fed has no where to go, but it keeps on yelling “clear” and throwing more trillions on the fire. Rates cut to zero (while household credit card debt reaches all time highs, and those rates stay at around 16% or more). You’ll probably refinance your mortgage.
President calls virus a hoax. Commander-in-chief says to quit complaining. Somebody tells former host of NBC’s The Apprentice that this is losing him popularity, so he goes on TV and says that it’s serious and we have the best response. Nobody can get their hands on a COVID test. Stocks still plummeting faster than a Boeing 737 MAX. There’s one big up day to punctuate the rout and the head of the executive branch of the US government tweets about it with pride.
It’s into March now and you‘ve submitted your telework plan, but the word hasn’t officially been given to work remotely. One by one your friends start to tweet about how they are working from home now, or about how they are scared and want to work from home, or about how they have a service industry or gig-based job and they are either working and being exposed to hundreds of people per day, or they are being laid off.
You haven’t been sleeping well, and on Friday, March 13 you wake up sick. Sore throat, and some congestion. Probably allergies. Probably just a cold. You call in sick, and find out later that day that your office will be teleworking from here on out… too bad you already rode the packed subway earlier this week, but better late then never.
If only there were someone in charge of the country who could make a coordinated and reassuring effort to have everyone follow best practices right now. You think about US-China relations warily. The two things preventing serious conflict (close economic and diplomatic ties) have evaporated over night. So the jury is out on that one.
Things officially move from wariness to panic. Friday evening at the grocery store the mood is apocalyptic. High winds and grey clouds in the frozen isle. Hackles up in the canned goods isle. You try to hold it in but a sneeze escapes you in the checkout line and everyone is knives out.
Somehow people are still packing into bars on U street according to a picture your friend sends. It takes all kinds. You for one use the weekend to whip the garden into shape; it’s early spring and these garden beds aren’t going to build themselves. It will be your first spring as a homeowner in the District.
Finances
You’re happy you got out of the stock market before all this. You are mostly cash, real estate, and gold at this point. Some crypto cause what millennial can resist. There will be big moves in bonds. President Trump, lord almighty libertarian himself, is talking about giving everyone $2,000. You heard some guy talking on his phone “Trump about to give out some bread. How do I fill out for that?”
There will be inflation (another word for when regular people get more money)whenever fiscal policy finally takes the reins from monetary policy. You honestly believe that helicopter money is the only possible solution to this right now.
Will it all get better? Two things need to happen for the situation to get better. 1) COVID needs to be under control enough for people to go back to work, and 2) Mood needs to change. Any efforts to restore financials before those happen will and SHOULD fail, because we currently don’t have a real economy, so why should we have a financial system that reflects anything else.
